Decisions under Uncertainty: Probabilistic Analysis for Engineering Decisions

Synopsis

Decision-making and risk assessment are essential aspects of every engineer's life, whether concerned with the probability of failure of a new product within the warranty period or the potential cost, human and financial, of the failure of a major structure such as a bridge. This book helps the reader to understand the trade-offs between attributes such as cost and safety, and includes a wide range of worked examples based on case studies. It introduces the basic theory from first principles using a Bayesian approach to probability and covers all of the most widely used mathematical techniques likely to be encountered in real engineering projects. These include utility, extremes and risk analysis, as well as special areas of importance and interest in engineering, such as optimization, games and entropy. Equally valuable for senior undergraduate and graduate students, practising engineers, designers and project managers.