Characterizing The North Korean Nuclear Missile Threat (technical Report)

Synopsis

The Security Community Generally Believes That North Korea Acquired Soviet Guided Ballistic Missiles From Egypt In The 1980s, Reverse Engineered Them, And Has Indigenously Produced And Deployed In North Korea Perhaps 1,000 Ballistic Missiles Of Various Types. This Report Questions This Common View And Seeks To Better Characterize The North Korean Missile Threat. The Author Compares The Available Data On The North Korean Missile Program Against Five Hypotheses About The Program⁰́₉s Origins, Sophistication, And Scale, Highlighting Inconsistencies. The Author Finds That The Most Plausible Characterization Of The North Korean Missile Program Is What He Terms The ⁰́bluff⁰́₊ Hypothesis: The Main Purpose Of The Program Is Political⁰́₄to Create The Impression Of A Serious Missile Threat And Thereby Gain Strategic Leverage, Fortify The North Korean Regime⁰́₉s Domestic Power, And Deter Other Countries, Particularly The Republic Of Korea And The United States, From Military Action. The Author Maintains That The North Korean Missile Program⁰́₉s Operational Readiness Seems To Be Secondary, And That Therefore The Threat Posed By It Has Been Exaggerated. Introduction -- Missile Basics -- The Problem -- Defining Five Hypotheses About The North Korean Program -- What We Know -- Consistency Check ⁰́₃- Discussion -- What We Would Like To Know ⁰́₃- Appendix. Details On What We Know. Markus Schiller. Supported By The Stanton Foundation. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 109-113). Also Available Online (pdf).